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Difference Between Sprint Commitment and Sprint Forecast

In the world of Agile software development, Sprint Planning is a crucial step in ensuring the successful delivery of a product.

Agile teams often face the challenge of deciding how much work they can take on during a single Sprint, which usually spans two to four weeks.

This is where the concepts of Sprint Commitment and Sprint Forecast come into play. These two terms are often used interchangeably, but they represent different aspects of planning and estimating work.

In this blog post, we will explore the differences between Sprint Commitment vs Forecast and discuss how to effectively apply them in your Agile planning process.

What is a Sprint Commitment?

A Sprint Commitment is a promise made by an Agile Team to achieve a specific set of goals within a Sprint.

The commitment is made during the Sprint Planning meeting, and the team commits to finishing the selected user stories and meets daily to review progress towards this goal.

If the team is unable to finish the committed stories, they carry them over to the next Sprint. The commitment fosters accountability and motivates the team to focus on results.

Meeting commitments builds trust and confidence within the team and organization.

What is a Sprint Forecast?

A sprint forecast is an estimate of what can be achieved in an upcoming Sprint.

During Sprint planning, the team reviews the Product Backlog and selects stories that can be completed in the next Sprint based on the team’s velocity and capacity.

The forecast is a pragmatic commitment to a realistic amount of work. It considers the team’s actual progress in previous sprints, current availability, holidays, and other factors that could impact productivity.

An accurate forecast sets the right expectations and helps ensure the team will meet its commitment.

The Sprint Forecast is revisited at the end of each Sprint to improve accuracy over time based on empirical data.

sprint commitment vs forecast

Sprint Commitment vs Forecast

Sprint Commitment and Sprint Forecast are terms used in Agile project management, particularly in Scrum, to describe the goals and expectations for a Sprint, which is a time-boxed iteration of work.

Here are the key differences between the two:

Definition

Sprint Commitment refers to the team’s agreement to complete a certain set of work items, such as user stories or tasks, during a sprint.

It represents the work that the team is confident about completing within the Sprint duration.

Sprint Forecast, on the other hand, is an estimation or prediction of the work that a team is likely to complete during a Sprint.

It’s based on the team’s past performance, capacity, and the complexity of the work items.

Purpose

The main purpose of the Sprint Commitment is to set clear expectations for the team and stakeholders, and provide a focus for the team to work towards achieving the agreed-upon goals.

While the primary purpose of a Sprint Forecast is to help the team and stakeholders get a better understanding of the likely progress during a Sprint and provide a more flexible and realistic view of the team’s expected output.

Accountability

With Sprint Commitment, the team is held responsible for completing the work items they committed to.

If the team cannot complete the committed work, it’s a signal to inspect and adapt the process to improve future Sprint commitments.

In the case of Sprint Forecast, the team is not strictly held accountable for completing the forecasted work.

Instead, it’s considered a helpful tool for planning and adjusting the work as needed throughout the Sprint.

In summary, Sprint Commitment represents a more rigid and clear-cut agreement of work to be completed during a sprint, while Sprint Forecast offers a more flexible and adaptable view of the work the team is likely to complete based on past performance and current capacity.

Both concepts are valuable in Agile project management and can be used together to help teams achieve their goals and continuously improve.

The Importance of Sprint Commitment

A Sprint Commitment is crucial for several reasons:

  • It builds focus: By committing to a Sprint Goal and a fixed set of priorities for 2-4 weeks, the team can focus deeply without distractions. This focus leads to greater productivity and quality of work.
  • It improves accountability: When the team commits to a Sprint Goal, they are accountable to each other to achieve it. This shared accountability creates motivation and peer pressure to do whatever it takes to get the work done.
  • It strengthens teamwork: Committing together to a challenging goal for a short period of time builds team cohesion and the willingness to sacrifice for the team. Team members support each other in a common mission.
  • It delivers business value: By committing to meaningful goals and priorities, and then achieving them, the team can deliver tangible and valuable results to the business every 2-4 weeks. This frequent business value is a key benefit of Scrum.
  • It builds momentum: Success breeds success. When a team achieves a Sprint Goal, they gain confidence and momentum to take on the next Sprint Goal. Over time, this momentum translates into high performance.
  • It boosts morale: There is a motivation and energizing effect of committing to achieve something meaningful and then achieving it with your team. This boost in morale and energy propels the team forward.

The Importance of Sprint Forecast

The importance of Sprint Forecast lies in the following aspects:

  • It sets the right Sprint goal: By forecasting the work the team can commit to in the Sprint, the team can define an appropriate Sprint Goal that is both challenging and achievable. This helps avoid setting a goal that is either too easy or unrealistic.
  • It achieves focus through commitment: Once the team forecasts the work they will commit to, they can then commit to achieving that forecast. This commitment points the entire team in a focused direction and effort for the Sprint.
  • It facilitates planning and prioritization: To forecast the Sprint work, the team needs to evaluate the Product Backlog, dependencies, risks, and priorities. This upfront planning and prioritization work helps ensure the team is focused on the highest-priority and highest-value work.
  • It enables pacing: Over multiple Sprints, the team can use velocity and past forecasts to establish a sustainable pacing for how much work they can complete per Sprint. This pacing helps avoid overcommitting or undercommitting in future Sprints.
  • It manages expectations: Share forecasts with stakeholders to set the right expectations for what the team can accomplish in the upcoming Sprint. This avoids surprises and ensures transparency into the team’s work and progress.
  • It highlights risks and dependencies: The process of Sprint forecasting often reveals risks, blockers, and dependencies that would otherwise remain hidden until mid-Sprint. Forecasting exposes these uncertainties so the team can address them upfront.

How to Balance Commitment and Forecast

Balancing Sprint Commitment and Forecast involves finding the right mix of predictability and flexibility for your team.

Here are some tips to achieve this balance:

  • Establish a clear Sprint Goal: Begin by defining a clear Sprint Goal that aligns with your product vision and stakeholder expectations. This will help your team make informed decisions about their Commitment and Forecast.
  • Leverage historical data: Use historical data from previous Sprints to inform both your Commitment and Forecast. This can help you identify trends and make more accurate estimates.
  • Set realistic expectations: Encourage your team to commit to a scope of work that is achievable based on their capacity and expertise. Overcommitting can lead to burnout and decreased team morale.
  • Review and adjust: Regularly review your team’s progress and adjust your forecast as needed. This allows you to address any emerging issues and make data-driven decisions.

Benefits of Adopting Both Commitment and Forecast

Integrating both Sprint Commitment and Corecast in your Agile planning process offers several benefits:

1. Improved Team Morale

By setting realistic expectations and embracing flexibility, your team is more likely to feel motivated and engaged.

2. Increased Stakeholder Satisfaction

When your team delivers on its commitments and continuously improves its forecasting, stakeholders gain confidence in the team’s ability to deliver valuable results.

3. Enhanced Decision-Making

With a better understanding of your team’s capacity and past performance, you can make more informed decisions about resource allocation, prioritization, and long-term planning.

4. Greater Adaptability

A team that embraces both Commitment and Forecast is better equipped to respond to changing requirements and shifting priorities, ensuring the delivery of a more relevant product.

Conclusion

Sprint Commitment and Forecast are two fundamental concepts in Agile planning that serve different purposes but are equally important for successful project delivery.

By understanding the differences between these concepts and adopting a balanced approach, you can enhance your team’s performance, improve stakeholder satisfaction, and ultimately deliver a more valuable product.

By integrating both commitment and forecast into your Agile planning process, you’ll be better equipped to manage expectations, adapt to change, and promote continuous improvement within your team.

By adopting these best practices and fostering a culture that values both accountability and flexibility, you can set your team up for success in today’s fast-paced, ever-changing software development landscape.

David Usifo (PSM, MBCS, PMP®)
David Usifo (PSM, MBCS, PMP®)

David Usifo is a certified project manager professional, professional Scrum Master, and a BCS certified Business Analyst with a background in product development and database management.

He enjoys using his knowledge and skills to share with aspiring and experienced project managers and product developers the core concept of value-creation through adaptive solutions.

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